By : AMMAR MASTER
BANGKOK :
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), especially Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs), have hit the headlines over the last few years. Yet for all the hype surrounding AVs, a large-scale deployment in our cities is still a pipe dream. Of note, we are discussing only vehicles at SAE Level 4 and above in this article.
“It is not quite true that all dreamers have abandoned hope of the imminent upheaval. But the scale of the task of deploying them commercially and safely on a large scale has caused more than a pause for thought for those involved in developing AVs,” says Pete Kelly, Managing Director, LMC Automotive.
Moreover, in the wake of the pandemic, several companies have re-examined and scaled back their AV plans to conserve cash for more conventional business verticals. These decisions are further influenced from the fact that any return on investment in AV development will be at least a decade or two away. This is also why OEMs, tier-one suppliers and autonomous technology leaders have started to form larger alliances to share the risk of delay and large development costs.
And while pre-public testing in campus environments or in mock-city-neighborhood locations continues, it is apparent that AVs will be developed gradually in a step-by-step approach, even when true autonomous capabilities start to mature. This will then allow developers to use the generated data and learning to improve the next stage of development.
More importantly, the technological advancement of AVs must be concurrently supported by new regulatory frameworks that address the public’s concern for safety. Now it is one thing to test vehicles in a geo-fenced controlled environment, and another to let AVs and SAVs run wild in cities without a legal framework.
There is some enabling legislation in the US, for example, but its timeline for adoption is unclear while opponents say it lacks critical safeguards. Regulators in various countries are yet to settle on the legal liability for AVs, while there is no national – let alone international – consensus on testing and direction of AVs, all of which will slow AV development and its deployment process.
A specific concern we have had for some time is how to introduce SAVs without causing an increase in congestion. An extreme example of this undesirable outcome would be creating relatively cheap SAV-enabled mobility that empties passengers from a bus or a railway compartment into robotaxis choking the streets.
We expect that most cities would not permit this to happen in already overly congested urban centers. Integration with developing public transportation systems, of the kind envisaged by a pioneering Singapore government, appears to be a far more favorable endpoint for most cities.
“Where SAVs might become strong performers, with less risk of creating new and harmful congestion, is in the large and sprawling suburban peripheries of cities – in places where bus, rail and metro stops become more dispersed and the first-last mile problem has only, so far, been solved by using traditional cars and taxis”, says Kelly.
This, however, may not happen for several decades, so AVs and SAVs will need to fit around and alongside public transportation systems for some time to come.
Furthermore, a ‘one size fits all’ approach can never be applied to AVs because of the different road networks and conditions, driving norms, climatic conditions, electricity and mobile data infrastructure, and more such fragmentations across markets and geographies. This will certainly slow the development process as AV developers attempt to fathom the myriad circumstances an AV must face and build in solutions.
Finally, it will be a challenge to win over buyers to AVs. Surveys have shown that large proportions of the public do not completely trust self-driving technology. Perceptions will change, but it will take time.
It is our view that adoption of AVs will begin with SAVs for the fleet segment such as shuttle, taxis and buses. Privately owned AVs will take more time and is likely to adopt a top-down approach starting with Premium as is the case with any new, expensive technology.
Geographically, we anticipate the US technology lead to allow it to adopt AVs earlier than other regional markets. Europe and Asia Pacific, dominated by China, are to be the next adopters of AVs although the focus here will likely be on transport integration.
There is a lot of interest in AVs in India, with several startups having entered the space recently and India’s IT companies should also benefit from the development of AVs globally. At the same time, some automakers (such as MG Motor, for example) have started offering Level 1 and Level 2 AV features in their lineups.
From a policy point of view, the government is currently focused on promoting electric vehicles in India. This has put any thought on adopting AVs (Level 4 and above) on the backburner, while it also fears potential job losses for drivers from the advent of SAVs. The Indian Motor Vehicles Act, 1988 will also have to make provisions for AVs, ranging from allowing testing and trials to various safety guidelines.
India’s existing road infrastructure, traffic conditions and driving culture will also challenge the proper and safe functioning of AVs, which would also require a wider and more reliable network connectivity.
Not only in India but across developed global markets, AVs must overcome an overwhelming number of challenges before they can be deployed in any meaningful numbers. These include the complexity, fragmentation and slow development of regulation, the funding requirement for AV expansion, the sustainability of AVs, or, indeed, shared mobility business models in general and the technological ability to address real-world complexity outside of narrowly defined deployments.
The owned vehicle is not going to be outmoded quickly. In many locations, AVs will be just another transportation option, like taxis (and ride hailing), train, bus and so on. Pockets of successful deployments will come first, but patchy spread will likely be the way users experience AVs in general.
Ammar Master is Senior Manager, Asia Pacific Vehicle Forecasts, LMC Automotive.
